In a stunning development, a key primary candidates in the Irish race for president has left the contest, dramatically altering the entire competition.
Fianna Fáil's presidential hopeful pulled out on the evening of Sunday following revelations about an outstanding payment to a past renter, transforming the race into an uncertain head-to-head battle between a moderate right former government minister and an autonomous progressive parliamentarian.
Gavin, 54, a political novice who was parachuted into the election after work in athletics, flying and armed forces, quit after it came to light he had neglected to refund a excess rental payment of €3,300 when he was a lessor about in the mid-2000s, during a period of economic hardship.
"I made a mistake that was inconsistent with who I am and the expectations I hold. Corrective actions are underway," he said. "I have also thought long and hard, about the potential impact of the current political contest on the wellbeing of my family and friends.
"After evaluating everything, My decision is to step down from the campaign for president with immediate effect and return to the arms of my family."
A major surprise in a presidential campaign in modern times limited the options to one candidate, a ex-minister who is campaigning for the ruling centre-right political party Fine Gael, and another candidate, an frank advocate for Palestine who is endorsed by Sinn Féin and left-leaning minor parties.
Gavin's exit also created turmoil for the taoiseach and Fianna Fáil leader, Micheál Martin, who had risked his standing by nominating an unproven contender over the skepticism of fellow members.
The leader stated the candidate wished to avoid "create turmoil" to the presidential role and was justified in leaving. "Jim has accepted that he was at fault in relation to an matter that has arisen in recent days."
Even with a track record of capability and achievements in business and sport – Gavin had steered Dublin's Gaelic football team to five straight titles – his political bid struggled through blunders that caused him to fall behind in an opinion poll even prior to the financial revelation.
Fianna Fáil figures who had objected to picking Gavin said the situation was a "significant mistake" that would have "ramifications" – a barely concealed caution to the leader.
The candidate's name may stay on the voting paper in the election on 24 October, which will end the 14-year tenure of Michael D Higgins, but people must choose between a dichotomy between a mainstream moderate hopeful and an autonomous progressive. Opinion research conducted ahead of Gavin's exit gave 32 percent backing for Connolly and Humphreys 23%, with 15 percent supporting Gavin.
Under electoral rules, the electorate chooses hopefuls by ranked choice. Should no contender surpass 50% on the first count, the hopeful with the fewest primary selections is eliminated and their ballots are redistributed to the next preference.
Analysts predicted that in the event of his exclusion, a majority of his ballots would transfer to Humphreys, and the other way around, boosting the chance that a establishment hopeful would attain the presidency for the governing partnership.
This office is a primarily ceremonial position but the current and former presidents turned it into a stage for international matters.
Connolly, 68, from her home city, would introduce a robust progressive perspective to that heritage. She has criticized capitalist systems and said the group represents "an integral component" of the Palestinian people. She has charged NATO of promoting military solutions and compared Berlin's enhanced defense expenditure to the thirties, when the Nazi leader built up military forces.
Humphreys, 62, has faced scrutiny over her performance in government in governments that presided over a accommodation problem. As a Protestant from the county Monaghan near the border, she has also been questioned about her lack of Irish language skills but said her Protestant heritage could help win over Northern Ireland's unionists in a reunified nation.
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