Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
